Investasi Saham, Stock Investing For Beginners
Investasi saham merupakan salah satu produk investasi yang banyak diminati manusia modern di negara maju. Dalam menentukan Investasi Saham, Anda jangan sampai salah pilih, karena disitu riskan unsur perjudian (Gambling). Pilihlah investasi jangka panjang untuk memperoleh keuntungan berupa bagi hasil atau Deviden.
Stock Investing For Beginners
“When it comes to predicting the market, the Important skill is not listening, but snoring. The trick is not to learn to trust your gut Feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore Them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed. ” – Peter Lynch
“Rule number one of Investing Is never lose money. Rule number two is never forget rule number 1 ” – Warren Buffet
Most of the people we never heard the word “stock” but not rare that still leaves many questions in his mind. For example, if investment in shares can be done by individuals? Or, if my income is less than Rp 5 million per month, can I invest in stocks? Or, if I want to invest, what its stages and who should I contact? Well, because there are some emails that ask a similar question, so I might as well write it here.
As we all know, stocks are securities which shows the ownership of a company. You buy a stock means you buy part ownership of the company. During the company’s operations and recorded a gain, you are also entitled to share in the form of dividends. You can also take advantage of the rising price of these shares from time to time. For more details, please download and review following the publication of the Indonesian Stock Exchange.
HOW TO BEGIN?
Before you begin investing, you should open a securities account in advance through securities companies registered as members on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). In addition you are required to deposit a number of deposits which can vary between USD 10 million – USD 50 million. Individual securities are different from each other – there’s that offer full-service, there are only serving the buy-sell it. There is also a securities firm which provides online brokerage services, so you can make buying and selling via the Internet. Some of them are:
* Etrading Securities
* Indo Premier Securities
* Phillip Securities Indonesia
* Samuel Securities Indonesia
* Sarijaya Permana Securities
* Supra Securinvest
Once you fill out the form, complete the requirements and administration, usually 2-3 days later you can start investing. The amount of fee for the transaction of about 0.2% to 0.3% for buying and selling. Securities companies usually allow you to transact with a value 2-3 times the deposit that you deposited. Funds are usually transferred to / from your account on T +2 (buy) until T +3 (sell).
However, you also need to be careful with the broker. They are paid on commission and purchase-sale – no matter your profit or loss. Rogue brokers often use your funds without a license to conduct their own Transaction. Moreover, some brokers (securities firms) are also acting as underwriters (underwriter) when a company registered in the stock. For reasons of marketing, they have an interest to keep the stock price is still “good.” Therefore, do not make recommendations of analysts as a major source of investment – but as an input only. The best course, do your own homework!
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
In the investment world, there are 2 methods commonly used as a tool, namely the fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (FA). FA assess the stocks based on fundamental condition of the company itself, therefore, FA is more suitable for long term investment. A true FA usually does not merely analyze financial data, but also came to the targeted company, speak with management and owner, saw the vision, mission and strategic plan forward, and so forth. Not infrequently a true FA to fly all over the world for picking information directly from the company.
Meanwhile, the TA rate based on the reflection of the price of the stock price in the past by reading the sentiment, trends, and projections that may occur in the future. The TA will help you memerkirakan direction of price movement, making the boundaries of movement in certain circumstances, and indicate the target direction and its risks. TA is typically done with the help of many software applications and exploit the graph (chart). Due to the nature and character, TA is more suitable for trading (speculation) in the short term or protection (hedging).
Particularly in Indonesia, there are some people who enter bandarmologi analysis (BA) as one of alternative tools. In summary, BA is done by searching a specific rumor and whisper, then hitchhike airport when they would fry a share. BA is only appropriate to be done within a really short – and you have access to find out which stocks are ready to fry.
Fried (cornering) is the action being undertaken to manipulate prices by creating a very high demand for these shares. After its share price target through a specific point, they then take action to achieve capital gains on sales. Fried food stocks are usually two-three layers of shares of its circulation is not much and the price is relatively cheap. They can go up and down with very drastically for no apparent reason and stock prices do not reflect the actual performance.
Which is most appropriate? Each only a tool that will be useful when used by the right person at the right time as well. I myself prefer the FA because my philosophy is to buy shares in order to have the company. During this time, all calculated only with a calculator (or phone) and recorded on paper / folder without any special software. So far, I also have never sold stock I ever bought.
If you’re interested in learning more fundamental analysis, please read the book The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, published by HarperBusiness Essential. Originally, the book was published in 1973, but rewritten in 2003. Book Henry Markowitz, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, published by Yale University Press also deserve to be the reference.
In the meantime, if you’d prefer to technical analysis, I recommend reading the book Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy, published by New York Institute of Finance (1986). There is also a recommended book Technical Analysis of A to Z by Stephen Achelis (2003) – but I’ve never read. About bandarmologi analysis, so far there has been no book that seems written specifically about it. 
Selecting Superior Stocks
Once your stock account is ready and that you are able to do the selling / buying of shares, then the hardest part of the investment is to choose heroes who will give the best results for us. Because stock ownership is a sign of our top companies, so it’s good to think like business owners (business owner). Before determining which companies are willing to buy, do an investigation prior to the company’s fundamentals that you seek.
There are hundreds of companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). You can start by sorting the companies with which you understand the business or the companies that have superior products and services. Choose a company that you expect to continue to grow for 10, 20, 30 years into the future. Furthermore, the sorting based management and owners. Choose a company that is managed by a management team qualified. Avoid companies that have a trend of “strange”, for example, when a coal company coal commodity prices rose but its stock price declined.
Just as well choose a company owned by government or professional well-known business group. Government-owned companies (SOEs) are “required” for profitable and contribute to the state through the receipt of dividends. Avoid companies that are owned (managed) by business groups that have poor reputations. Be careful because they do not often make the manipulation of financial statements or perform tricks the rough financial engineering.
Warren Buffett advised to select companies that have economic moats, or competitive advantage that is difficult to be imitated by competitors. Economic moats could be an advantage in the form of brands (brand strength), cost (cost efficiency), switching (“difficulty” to switch to products / services, etc.), or protections (protection of patents, property rights, government regulation, etc.). Economic moats will make the customer willing to pay higher. Therefore, companies that have good economic moats will be more profitable and still be growing – even if interest rates or prices are rising.
Some people also recommend to buy big companies berkapitalisasi (bluechips) and a liquid and often seling (LQ45). Note also if the company plans to repurchase (buyback) of their shares. Usually it is a sign of their shares have appreciated more cheap and good prospects for the future.
Still confused as well? Maybe you can get a little “cheat” a portfolio of stock mutual funds so far have moncer performance. Stomach contents of such mutual funds can be seen from the annual report and / or their prospectuses. You can use their portfolios as a guidance for selecting a company that will become your place to invest.
Now, if you sort through hundreds of listed companies in IDX, so until this stage the remaining options may live only 20-30 companies. Find more information about the actual condition of these companies, such as from employees, clients, suppliers, or accountants who audited the company. When you have time, visit the company so that a clearer and more complete. If not, then you have to “make sure” that the financial statements already reflect the real condition of the company.
Read the financial statements and annual reports companies that you seek. You can find it here, here and here. Alternatively, you can also download the relevant company’s web site.
Choose a company with a return on equity (ROE) of more than 15%. This illustrates how the ability of management to manage its equity. If ROE is only around 8-9%, then invest in the company just the same as saving money in the form of deposits.
Next, select the companies that profit growth (earnings growth) is stable ranging from 20% or more. Select a company also has a ratio of debt to equity ratio is relatively low and low-price-per-free cash flow. That is, firms can generate large amounts of cash to finance its operations and its expansion with no need to rely on external loans to high cost. The ratio of debt / low capital that also enable the company to generate a healthier cashflow and not too sensitive to interest rate movements.
Until this stage, may live only 10-15 companies are left in your hand.
Predicting Stock Prices Fair
Assume you have found the best according to your company 10-15. Then, how to determine the price of these shares? First, determine the earnings per share (EPS) and the trend growth for the next 5 years. If growth in the top 15%, use the rate of 15%, whereas if growth is below 10%, 10% use rate. Multiply to see the future value at the end of the fifth year.
After finding the EPS at the end of the fifth year, multiply by the price earnings ratio (PER) for the year. PER of the year is calculated by a simple rule: if the PER of less than 20%, use rate of 12%, if the PER of more than 20%, 17% use rate. So far, the research shows very high PER record companies rarely more than 17% over the years. Once multiplied, you will find the estimated share price at the end of the fifth year.
Next, determine how much actual value of the shares. The trick, add the estimated share price at the end of the fifth year in dividends received. Dividends are calculated by summing over the five-year EPS multiplied by the dividend payout ratio (DPR). Having met the fair value of shares at the end of the fifth year, staying discounting to present value target (hurdle rate) that we want.
Simulation of Fair Value Shares
Consider the following examples. Using the 15% hurdle rate, which assumes the stock company will give 15% return continually, TLKM shares may be purchased below the price of Rp 10,500. While the 20% hurdle rate, TLKM shares to be purchased under the price of USD 8500. Well, if the current price of Rp 9700, if expected return of at least 15% per year, you can buy now. However, if you’re expecting at least a 20% return, you must wait until the price dropped to USD 8500.
Of course these calculations are still very rough. I also count with just doodles. In addition, the rate that I use very conservative because many of these stocks have a growth in EPS and PER is very high. Could be, who later formed the price far beyond calculation. But at least the above simulation can be a reference to estimate the fair price of a stock.
After finding the best stock 5-7 that meet your hurdle rate and is trading below its intrinsic value, buy as much as you can. Hold for a long time. Inshallah 4-5 years of your investment are beginning to show results.
Last but Not Least
Invest your time before invest your money. Before entering real, it’s good to spend time studying, reading books, workshops, and dig up more information. [Campaign: I'm writing a detailed book about the stock. Please blessing, hopefully soon be resolved. ]
Do not forget also the basic rules of investing: buy good companies at discount prices. Do not be afraid to wait. Find a good timing that allows you to buy at cheap prices, for example, the months from January to February. If you can buy cheap, although prices are not rising, you keep doing the “best buying” and still earn potential profits through dividends.
How movements rise and fall with the price? I myself was not too concerned. John Bogle, in his thesis while still at Princeton, said that in the short term prices will always move to follow the psychology and market sentiment. But in the long term, prices will reflect the company’s own fundamentals. During the shot we hit, in the long term, he will give a pretty good advantage for us. Do not be tempted to come and go just because of price fluctuations. You better focus on other jobs or looking for alternative income to invest back into your portfolio.
Despite sounding cliched, do not forget to always pray for guidance in making the best investment analysis and decision. If your investments are successful, do not forget to set aside at least 10% of your profits for those who are less fortunate. If there are others who are interested in trying to follow your footsteps, do not hesitate to share knowledge and experience.
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